Candel Therapeutics: Follow-up data adds to ’2409’s clinical package, uptake remains the key debate

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Candel Therapeutics: Follow-up data adds to ’2409’s clinical package, uptake remains the key debate

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Candel Therapeutics

Follow-up data adds to ’2409’s clinical

package, uptake remains the key debate

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 9.00 USD | Price: 7.88 USD

AUA data supports PO move ahead of BLA; PO to $9 18 May 2026

Candel’s update for aglatimagene (CAN-2409) in localized intermediate- to high-risk Equity

prostate cancer is incrementally positive in our view, with extended follow-up

directionally suggesting treatment benefit continues to accrue over time. The company

Key Changesreported 39% improvement in prostate cancer specific disease-free survival (DFS) with

favorable trends in key biologic secondary endpoints (more below). We think the data (US$) Previous Current

supports the thesis that improved local tumor control and higher 2-year pathologic Price Obj. 7.00 9.00

complete response could translate to meaningful clinical benefit and are increasing our 2027E Rev (m) 10.8 11.9

penetration for CAN-2409 in prostate cancer (now $5/sh from $3/sh) which raises our 2028E Rev (m) 32.9 36.1

PO to $9 (from $7). That said, we reiterate Neutral as we see a more balanced 2026E EPS -0.77 -0.75

risk/reward until commercialization becomes clearer. 2027E EPS -0.64 -0.60

2028E EPS -0.52 -0.45

Key exploratory endpoint improvements a plus

In the intermediate-risk subgroup (~85% of the study), aglatimagene improved prostate Alec W. Stranahan

Research Analyst

cancer-specific DFS by 41%, time to salvage anti-cancer therapy by 49%, time to BofAS

biochemical failure by 52%, and showed a lower metastasis rate of 0.24% vs. 2.35% for +1 646 743 2109 alec.stranahan@bofa.com

placebo. We think this adds to the data package for Candel when discussing with

Matthew Guggenbiller