LatAm At A Glance: Elections in the Andeans

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LatAm At A Glance: Elections in the Andeans

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LatAm At A Glance

Elections in the Andeans

Economics: Open races 18 May 2026

Our US economics team now expects the Fed to remain on hold for the rest of the year. GEM Economics

They have pushed the two cuts in their forecast from Sep–Oct 2026 to Jul–Sep 2027. LatAm

The data simply do not warrant cuts this year: inflation is still too high and is moving

Economics

higher. The solid April jobs report was the last straw, especially alongside hawkish Fed Carlos Capistran

speak (see report). LatAm and Canada Economist BofAS

carlos.capistran@bofa.com

In LatAm, we continue to expect the Central Bank of Brazil to cut this year, while most

David Beker >>

other major inflation targeters in the region are likely to keep policy rates on hold Bz Econ/FI & LatAm EQ Strategy

through year-end. We cut our 2026 LatAm GDP growth forecast to 2.1% (from 2.3%; - Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

0.2pp), reflecting weaker growth profiles in Mexico, Chile, and Argentina. Alexander Muller

Andean(ex-Ven) Carib Economist

BofAS

Elections continue in the region, this time in the Andeans. In Colombia, the presidential

Gustavo Mendes

election —31 May (first round) and 21 June (runoff)— is shaping up as a three-way race. Brazil Economist

Runoff polls are mixed, underscoring high uncertainty. In Peru, the outcome of the 12 Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

April first-round presidential election is now clear. Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sanchez Sebastian Rondeau

Southern Cone & Venz Economist

advanced to the runoff, which in our view poses risks to the economy. BofAS

Natacha Perez

Brazil EconomistLDM: Exercise tactical caution

Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

While we continue to have a long-term constructive view on LatAm local markets, we

Pedro Diaz