LatAm At A Glance: Elections in the Andeans

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LatAm At A Glance: Elections in the Andeans

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LatAm At A Glance

Elections in the Andeans

Open races 18 May 2026

Our US economics team now expects the Fed to remain on hold for the rest of the year. GEM Economics

They have pushed the two cuts in their forecast from Sep–Oct 2026 to Jul–Sep 2027. LatAm

The data simply do not warrant cuts this year: inflation is still too high and is moving

higher. The solid April jobs report was the last straw, especially alongside hawkish Fed Table of Contents

speak (see report).

Brazil 3

In LatAm, we continue to expect the Central Bank of Brazil to cut this year, while most Mexico 6

other major inflation targeters in the region are likely to keep policy rates on hold Argentina 9

through year-end. We cut our 2026 LatAm GDP growth forecast to 2.1% (from 2.3%; - Chile 11

0.2pp), reflecting weaker growth profiles in Mexico, Chile, and Argentina. Colombia 13

Peru 15

Elections continue in the region, this time in the Andeans. In Colombia, the presidential

election —31 May (first round) and 21 June (runoff)— is shaping up as a three-way race. Ecuador 17

Runoff polls are mixed, underscoring high uncertainty. In Peru, the outcome of the 12 Uruguay 18

April first-round presidential election is now clear. Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sanchez Venezuela 19

advanced to the runoff, which in our view poses risks to the economy. Central America and Caribbean 20

Macro, Rates and FX Forecasts 25

Research Analysts 33

Carlos Capistran

LatAm and Canada Economist

BofAS

carlos.capistran@bofa.com

David Beker >>

Bz Econ/FI & LatAm EQ Strategy

Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

Pedro Diaz

Caribbean Economist

Alexander Muller

Andean(ex-Ven) Carib Economist

Gustavo Mendes

Brazil Economist

Natacha Perez

Sebastian Rondeau

Southern Cone & Venz Economist