Chemicals: Weekly: Iran Implications – Week Eleven

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Chemicals: Weekly: Iran Implications – Week Eleven

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Chemicals

Weekly: Iran Implications – Week Eleven

Industry Overview

Chemical market finds equilibrium, for now 18 May 2026

The US – China summit came and went with little discussion of, or traction made on, the Equity

Strait of Hormuz (SOH). In the meantime, commodity chemicals have found an equilibrium. United States

Supply-demand has rebalanced, driving prices largely flat to down over the past few weeks Chemicals

with magnitude of give-back varying on the market and product. Even in polyethylene, Matthew DeYoe, CFA

which has been particularly tight, global spot markets have edged lower in recent weeks. Research Analyst

The relative stability has also allowed economies to source needed feedstocks. Japan, for BofAS+1 646 855 5746

instance has said it has secured enough naphtha to last into 2027. Even South Korea saw matthew.deyoe@bofa.com

its petrochemical exports increase y-y in April. Under the surface however, markets are in Hakim Sanfo

Research Analyst

a much worse place. The global crude inventory drawdown continues, providing cushion BofAS

to a market (and downstream derivatives) which hides the true impacts of the SOH +1 646 743 1557

hakim.sanfo@bofa.com

closure. As these inventories deplete (should the strait not open), it is reasonable to

assume chemical feedstock shortages amplify and prices leg higher. The key issue here is

the Strait closure, as markets are fundamentally oversupplied under normal conditions. Acronyms:

April PE data shows strong local sales but weak exports ACC: American Chemistry Council

The ACC released preliminary April PE data. While total sales were -2% m-m (days

Bps: Basis points

adjusted) domestic sales +14% y-y was still close to a record.