Gaming - Macau: Macau tour takeaways; May GGR on pace for mid-single-digit YoY growth

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Gaming - Macau: Macau tour takeaways; May GGR on pace for mid-single-digit YoY growth

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Gaming - Macau

Macau tour takeaways; May GGR on pace

for mid-single-digit YoY growth

Industry Overview

May weekly ADR at MOP692mn; Macau tour takeaways 18 May 2026

Our channel checks show Macau gaming ADR at MOP692mn last week and MOP744mn Equity

MTD, with VIP hold improving but still below average (~2.3-2.6%). May GGR is tracking Macau/China

toward the low end of our +5-7% YoY forecast. From our recent Macau tour (meeting Gaming

operators and industry contacts), we conclude: 1) April VIP slowdown reflects segment Karl Choi, CFA >>

volatility, but low VIP hold (notably at Sands) is a key drag QTD; 2) World Cup disruption Research Analyst

impact in June is uncertain but well‑flagged – we think a mild YoY GGR decline could be Merrill+852 3508Lynch3108(Hong Kong)

viewed as a beat, while a high-single-digit % YoY drop may be taken negatively.3) karl.choi@bofa.com

Competition is “fierce but stable.” With limited near‑term catalysts amid tough 2H Ronald Leung, CFA >>

Research Analyst

comps and ongoing pressure, Galaxy remains our top pick, supported by above‑average Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

medium‑term growth and attractive valuation (8.3x 2026E EBITDA, 4.8% FY26E yield). +852 3508 3728

ronald.leung@bofa.com

Below-average hold drag during Golden Week EricResearchDu >>Analyst

Based on our channel checks, following sub‑2% VIP hold in April (impacting Sands, Melco), Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

+852 3508 3329

hold remained weak overall during May Golden Week – pressuring Sands & MGM – while eric.du@bofa.com

Galaxy benefited from stronger hold. We estimate Melco, MGM (mass-led, offsetting VIP

drag), and Galaxy likely delivered double‑digit YoY GGR growth over the period.