European Chemicals: Chemical conditions tool: looking attractive

Research evidence excerpt

European Chemicals: Chemical conditions tool: looking attractive

Estimate/PO changes

Arkema (Buy, PO EUR80)

Following Q1 results, Arkema reiterated its FY guidance of slight EBITDA growth in

constant currency, implying approx EUR1.25bn. However, management suggested there

could be upside in light of temporarily tighter supply-demand balances in certain value

chains (namely acrylic acid) in light of feedstock shortages following the Strait of

Hormuz closure. Our forecast of 1.35bn remains above consensus (1.3bn), but has been

slightly trimmed from our prior 1.4bn estimate given recent evidence that acrylic

spreads have retreated somewhat from the initial spike in April. Management

acknowledged the performance of high performance polymers was soft in Q1 but were

optimistic that results would improve in Q2 onwards as some growth projects ramped

up. Our estimates for 2027/28 are broadly unchanged given our working assumption that

the distortion from Iran would be a temporary phenomenon. Neutral, PO EUR80.

Lanxess (Underperform, PO EUR15)

Following Q1 results which were in line with consensus, we make a minor adjustment to

our 2026 EBITDA forecast from EUR548mn to 542mn (vs guidance of EUR450-550mn).

For 2027 our estimate is lowered from EUR636mn to 610mn. This implies financial

leverage of 3.3x net debt/EBITDA and we forecast Laxness to only generate c.EUR50mn

of cash over the course of 2026-27 versus a need to refinance EUR1bn of debt. While

these obligations are theoretically covered by cash on hand and committed credit lines,

we remain concerned that more permanent capital (ie equity) is needed. Headroom could

be even lower if the current wave of energy/raw material inflation consumes more

working capital than our assumption. One area of negative revision is Consumer