LatAm Trading Catalysts: Activity indicators; electoral polls in BZ; 1Q earnings releases

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LatAm Trading Catalysts: Activity indicators; electoral polls in BZ; 1Q earnings releases

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LatAm Trading Catalysts

Activity indicators; electoral polls in BZ; 1Q

earnings releases

Investment Strategy

Economics: activity data in BZ, MX, CL & PE 17 May 2026

Focus this week is on economic activity. In Brazil, we expect IBC-Br (Mon) to grow 0.3% Investment Strategy

momsa in March (from 0.6%) on the back of moderate sector data from high frequency Latin America

indicators (industry, retail and services). In Mexico, we expect 1Q26 GDP (Fri) to decline Paula Andrea Soto, CFA >>

-0.8% qoqsa on several indicators contracting at the margin (industrial production, LatAm Equity Strategist

investment, consumption, retail sales). Chile (Mon) and Peru (Mon) also release 1Q26 Merrill+55 11Lynch2188 (Brazil)4226

GDP. In the US, attention turns to FOMC minutes (Wed). paula.soto@bofa.com

David Beker >>

Eq. Strategy: turning more bearish on Mexico BzMerrillEcon/FILynch& (Brazil)LatAm EQ Strategy

We see three headwinds for Mexican equities in 2026: 1) soft GDP growth (consensus +55 11 2188 4371

david.beker@bofa.com

coming down to 1.2%) and weak Mexbol EPS growth (2026E: below 7% YoY ex AMX, CX,

and GMexico), 2) +70% odds of USMCA moving to annual reviews this summer, and 3) CarlosLatAm andCapistranCanada Economist

rising political risks as US seeks the extraditions of ten Sinaloa Morena members. For BofAS

+1 646 743 2921

more details, see report: Mexico Equity Strategy. carlos.capistran@bofa.com

Electoral polls could be out amid higher noise in Brazil MateusLatAm EquityConceicaoStrategist>>

Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

Four electoral polls may be released this week in Brazil, following the recent increase in +55 11 2188 4201

political noise.