Otsuka Holdings (4578) Reiterating Overweight based on Jan-Mar results as we see earnings upside and catalysts

Research evidence excerpt

Otsuka Holdings (4578) Reiterating Overweight based on Jan-Mar results as we see earnings upside and catalysts

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

20 May 2026

Otsuka Holdings (4578) Overweight

4578.T, 4578 JP

Reiterating Overweight based on Jan-Mar results as we Price (20 May 26):¥11,405

see earnings upside and catalysts ▲Price Target (Dec-26):¥14,000 Prior (Dec-26):¥12,000

Based on 1Q FY2026 results and pipeline progress, we revise up our earnings

estimates and set a price target of ¥14,000 (previously ¥12,000). We reiterate our Japan Equity Research

Overweight rating. We believe business profit on par with that of FY2025 is Biotechnology & Pharmaceuticals/

achievable in FY2026 given Voyxact’s strong market penetration and the limited Medical Technologies & Services

impact of generics on Jynarque and Abilify Maintena. Even if the impact of the AC Seiji Wakao, Ph.D.

patent expirations of Jynarque and Abilify Maintena is felt in FY2027 rather than (81-3) 6736-8612

FY2026, we think it will be possible to offset it by expanding Voyxact sales, seiji.wakao@jpmorgan.com

maintaining growth. From this report, our earnings estimates reflect TSND-201 Yugo R. Kamimura, Ph.D.

from Transcend Therapeutics, the acquisition of which is scheduled to be (81-3) 6736-8635

completed in 2Q. yugo.kamimura@jpmorgan.com

Naoko Saito

Since 4Q FY2025 results, Otsuka HD shares have re-rated and are currently trading (81-3) 6736-8693

at 19.6x the FY2026 Bloomberg consensus EPS estimate. In contrast, they are naoko.saito@jpmorgan.com

trading on a P/E of 17.0x our FY2026 EPS estimate, so we see significant upside. JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

We strongly recommend the stock as we expect earnings upside and short-term Key Changes (FYE Dec)