Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) 4Q results: Larger-than-expected capital level adjustment, somewhat disappointing dividend policy

Research evidence excerpt

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) 4Q results: Larger-than-expected capital level adjustment, somewhat disappointing dividend policy

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

20 May 2026

Tokio Marine Holdings (8766) Overweight

8766.T, 8766 JP

4Q results: Larger-than-expected capital level Price (20 May 26):¥7,817

adjustment, somewhat disappointing dividend policy Price Target (Dec-26):¥7,700

Neutral (mixed): Tokio Marine Holdings announced FY2026 guidance and a Japan Equity Research

share buyback along with FY2025 results. FY2025 IFRS-based adjusted profit of

Insurance, Securities, Diversified

¥881.5 billion and FY2026 guidance of ¥950 billion were broadly in line with our Financials

estimates of ¥883.7 billion and ¥941.8 billion, respectively. FY2026 guidance for AC Koki Sato

capital level adjustments (share buybacks) of ¥400 billion is higher than our

(81-3) 6736-8609

estimate of ¥240 billion, but DPS guidance of ¥245 is slightly lower than our koki.sato@jpmorgan.com

estimate of ¥254, and the post IFRS transition dividend payout ratio target of 50% Yuka Azami

in principle is also lower than expected. (81-3) 6736-8619

yuka.azami@jpmorgan.com

• FY2026 guidance: Tokio Marine will introduce IFRS-based adjusted profit as JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

a new profit benchmark in FY2026 that adjusts accounting profit for capital

gains/losses (which have consisted mainly of capital losses in the North

American business) and other factors. In addition, gains from the sale of

strategic shareholding, which were previously included in adjusted net profit

under J-GAAP, are no longer recognized according to IFRS rules. FY2026

guidance for profit to increase by ¥68.5 billion breaks down by segment as

international +¥55.5 billion, Japan P&C −¥11.7 billion, and Japan life +¥12.7