British Land No surprises. CEO says occupational fundamentals for their portfolio are as strong as they have seen them: FY26 First Take

Research evidence excerpt

British Land No surprises. CEO says occupational fundamentals for their portfolio are as strong as they have seen them: FY26 First Take

Neil Green, CFA AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-4478 20 May 2026 C A Z E N O V E

neil.d.green@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

British Land (Neutral; Price Target: 440p)

Investment Thesis

British Land offers diversified exposure to UK (predominantly London) property with a

portfolio of offices, retail parks, shopping centres and increasingly urban logistics. The

group is embarking on its regeneration of Canada Water - with development now underway.

We expect growing macro-economic uncertainty and projections for a recession in the UK

will weigh on the outlook for capital values, while sector-wide headwinds around the cost

of capital is another issue being faced, although British Land’s balance sheet appears

relatively well positioned. British Land’s exposure to the City of London detracts, in our

view.

Valuation

Our Dec-27 price target for British Land is based on our total returns-based European

Valuation Model, which takes into account whether a company creates or destroys value.

We argue that companies that have a positive spread between returns and their weighted

average cost of capital (WACC) should trade at a premium to NNAV, whereas those with

a negative spread should be priced below NNAV. We apply this spread to the invested

capital, discount back and add/subtract to our NNAV forecast to derive our price target.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

We believe the key risks to the downside for British Land include a spike in bond yields

without the ability to pass through higher inflation. Another wave of retail closures, CVAs

and decline in retail sales would also be a negative.