JPM | FTM | Today’s Research | Europe

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | FTM | Today’s Research | Europe

Europe Equity Research

Europe First to Market 20 May 2026

Today’s Morning Meeting | Also Published Today | Key Changes | JPM Events | Upcoming Earnings

Today’s Morning Meeting

European Infrastructure (Elodie Rall)

Post Q1 - Continue to prefer toll roads from here

Q1 results painted a mixed picture, with beats at Fraport (OW) and Ferrovial (OW, AFL) but notable misses for ADP (N) and

Aena (UW). Overall, the toll roads reported reassuring numbers and maintained guidance while the airports either withdrew

guidance or confirmed it on the condition that they assume limited impacts from the conflict. The sector has underperformed

the wider market since the conflict (-13% vs. SXXP -3%), reflecting traffic risk on elevated oil and jet fuel prices, as well as

rising yields, which are generally unsupportive of the sector, particularly long duration assets. Airports (-16%) have

underperformed vs the toll roads (-12%) since the start of the conflict, given greater risks from the conflict: see our notes (link)

and (link) but airports have de-rated slightly more (~13% vs. ~11%) on an EV/EBITDA basis, and given the ongoing traffic risk

to airports, we continue to prefer toll roads to airports in the absence of visibility on a resolution in Iran. Ferrovial remains our

preferred name, where we see catalysts from value crystallization at the NTO and potential Managed Lane project awards later

this year. We continue to prefer Eiffage (OW) to Vinci (N), noting the company's attractive valuation and lack of airport

exposure. Fraport remains our preferred airport, and we note that the company should be the greatest beneficiary of any

resolution to the conflict, given the shares’ underperformance.

US TMC Conference (Akhil Dattani)