Clariant: Catalysts headwinds to persist; Clariant likely near-term laggard

Research evidence excerpt

Clariant: Catalysts headwinds to persist; Clariant likely near-term laggard

Barclays | Clariant

Catalysts remains the key swing factor for 2026, with Middle East disruption driving the

current volume weakness. Divisional margins fell sharply by ~700bps YoY (16.2% to 9%) in Q1,

effectively wiping out much of the recovery achieved in recent years and marking the weakest

quarterly performance on record. The decline was driven primarily by order push-outs, as

customers are delaying activity amid ongoing disruption and seeking to optimise spreads,

resulting in lower utilisation and a significant operating leverage unwind. This reflects the

division’s high exposure to refinery and petrochemical end-markets, which are currently the

most disrupted globally, with around half of shutdowns located in Asia, leading to delayed

catalyst replacement cycles. Importantly, we view this as a timing issue rather than structural

demand destruction, with management pointing to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as the

key trigger for recovery (which they currently expect to drive a 2H skew). Pricing remains a

secondary factor, with management expecting value-based pricing to offset input cost inflation

over time.

The division also benefited from a one-off precious metals transaction in Q1, which we

understand contributed high-single-digit sales but was fully pass-through and therefore neutral

to EBITDA, albeit dilutive to margins. For Q2, we forecast a 20% volume headwind on tough

comparatives (+5% YoY in Q2 2025), given the anniversary of a one-off catalyst sale in the prior

year (~CHF15m sales, ~CHF3m EBITDA). This leads us to estimate Q2 EBITDA of CHF25m, still

broadly consistent with the typical ~20% sequential uplift from Q1 to Q2; however, we note our