European Diversified Financials: Diversified Financials – the month in charts

Research evidence excerpt

European Diversified Financials: Diversified Financials – the month in charts

Barclays | European Diversified Financials

volumes are from the tariff-heightened 2025 levels. While the cyclical stories are easing

somewhat, we continue see compelling value upside at Deutsche Boerse (OW) and LSEG (OW)

with the former also well positioned to benefit from the opportunities from the European

Savings and Investment Union, the topic addressed in our most-read piece of research this

month: Can Europe build financial champions?

Private capital data confirms lower transaction activity levels: Our chartbook data confirms

the expected slowdown for private capital activity as a result of the combination of ongoing

negative newsflow around the private credit industry as well as the increasingly uncertain

macro and geopolitical backdrop. Investments (Figure 18) and exits (Figure 19) were lower again

in April from the lower March levels. In addition, financing activity was slower with new

issues CLOs for US (Figure 21) and Europe (Figure 20) lower also versus March and February.

Concerns around Private Capital activity continue to weigh on the sub-sector with EQT

(EW) seeing amongst the highest short interest in Europe.

Consumer confidence questions starting to arise: Amundi's strong reporting pointed to a

healthy consumer with good risk appetite, and this was followed up with European fund flows

rebounding from March's lower levels (Figure 22 and Figure 23). However, that data is seeing

counterpoints with 3i reporting a sharp drop in the footfall in Action's German stores as

evidence of falling consumer confidence emerged. The chart book highlights further evidence of

a softening consumer outlook across the UK, Sweden and Europe (see Figure 17) which could