Strategic Autonomy (EU): Beyond the capex supercycle towards second-order effects

Research evidence excerpt

Strategic Autonomy (EU): Beyond the capex supercycle towards second-order effects

Barclays | Thematic Investing

1) Global Supply Chain Resilience

We believe global supply chain resilience is becoming increasingly relevant for

thematic investors as prolonged conflict, trade fragmentation and resource

nationalism expose the fragility of globally optimised production models. Gaining

local industrial scale and productivity remains at the forefront of nations, with

broader domestic supply chains being incentivised, particularly for goods on which

dependency can lead to vulnerabilities (e.g. CRM, semiconductors). However, we also

believe the focus on the stability and resilience of global supply chains will remain

critical, as China's exports remain healthy and re-shoring/near-shoring trends

haven't been as pronounced in most end markets.

• High materiality: Logistics & Fulfilment, Localised Manufacturing & Micro-

factories. Logistics sit at the front line of this shift. If conflicts become more

prominent, trade restrictions and energy shocks raise the value of reliable

transport and distribution networks. Goods need to move, finding alternative

routes to avoid disruption. For example, as the state of multilateralism

deteriorates, the EU's policy approach to maintain open and frictionless trade is to

advance its bilateral trade agreements. This can reduce risk and encourage firms

to commit capital to cross-border supply chains, making global supply chain

resilience a key theme.

Localised manufacturing directly supports strategic autonomy by shortening

supply chains, reducing dependency on geopolitically exposed regions and

enabling faster response to demand or disruption. From a European strategic

autonomy point of view, dependence vulnerabilities remain more pronounced in