US Daily Data Recap "SPF long-run inflation expectations little changed" Wilcox

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Data Recap "SPF long-run inflation expectations little changed" Wilcox

Global Research

18 May 2026ab

US Daily Data Recap Economics

AmericasSPF long-run inflation expectations little changed

Amanda Wilcox

Economist

Long-term inflation expectations remained stable in the Q2 Survey of Professional amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3899

Forecasters, signaling well-anchored inflation expectations, in our view. In the near term,

however, forecasters marked up expectations for Q4/Q4 headline and core CPI inflation Jonathan Pingle

in 2026 and marked down 2026 GDP growth slightly. Economist

jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

Homebuilder sentiment improved 3 points in May but at 37 this is still a low level. Higher

Alan Detmeisterinput prices weigh on builders and geopolitical and monetary policy uncertainty hold

back homebuyer demand. The FRB of New York services index improved in May but alan.detmeister@ubs.com

remained in contraction, while prices indexes were fairly stable. Active oil drilling rigs +1-212-713 1222

rose 5 to 415 in the week ending May 15, the third consecutive weekly improvement but

Abigail Wattwe have seen limited evidence thus far that higher oil prices are yet translating into more

drilling. abigail.watt@ubs.com

+1-212-882 6929

Looking ahead to this week, the April FOMC minutes will likely reflect a modest hawkish Jalen Nichols

shift toward a more neutral stance. Some non-voters likely supported removing the Economist

easing bias, with "many" participants potentially favoring the change. The minutes may jalen.nichols@ubs.com

show less concern about labor downside risks and greater focus on inflation, which +1-212-882 6905

would be a hawkish shift. Despite Powell's comments at the April FOMC meeting, the

minutes could hint at openness to hikes.