China Industrials "Going global by the numbers: overseas revenue to reac..."

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China Industrials "Going global by the numbers: overseas revenue to reac..."

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China Industrials Equities

ChinaGoing global by the numbers: overseas revenue

to reach 25% of total in 2030E Industrial

Robin Xu

Analyst

bin.xu@ubs.com

Going global remains one of China's most important investment themes +86-21-3866 8872

We highlighted the importance of China's going global (see link) in 2024 and have been Lei Meng

closely monitoring this trend ever since in our China Export Monitor and "China+1" Strategist

investment tracker. Combining historical data from A-share companies and bottom-up S1460517080001

estimates from UBS China analysts, we estimate overseas revenue to account for 25% of lei.meng@ubs.com

non-financial A-share companies' total revenue in 2030 vs 19% in 2025. Moreover, +86-21-3866 8939

faster overseas revenue growth and higher overseas gross margin will have positive Paul Gong

implications for gross profit. Our sensitivity analysis suggest A-share gross profit could Analyst

increase by 35% in 2030E vs 2025, assuming 25% overseas revenue contribution in paul.gong@ubs.com

2030E, a stable overseas GPM and 5% A-share revenue CAGR in 2025-30E. +852-2971 7868

Ken Liu

Overseas revenue to reach 25% of total non-financial A-share revenue in 2030E Analyst

The overseas revenue contributions of non-financial A-share firms expanded by 2ppts ken.liu@ubs.com

from 17% in 2024 to 19% in 2025. With Chinese firms' competitive edge in supply +852-2971 7516

chains and continuous R&D efforts, we expect rising global competitiveness to translate Amily Guo

to further overseas revenue exposure expansion. In addition, the impact of the Middle Analyst