First Read: Global Battery Supply Chain "Back from 2026 CIBF" Bush

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Global Battery Supply Chain "Back from 2026 CIBF" Bush

Global Research

18 May 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesGlobal Battery Supply Chain

Back from 2026 CIBF Global

Basic Materials

Tim Bush

Supply tightens, China prioritizes domestic scale Analyst

We attended the 2026 China International Battery Fair (CIBF), the world's largest battery tim-d.bush@ubs.com

event, featuring over 3,100 exhibitors across the full value chain- ~1,000 materials +82-2-3702 8801

companies, ~1,600 equipment makers, and ~500 battery cell manufactures. The Kunlun Li

dominant theme was decisive shift from oversupply fears to capacity tightness, Analyst

especially for ESS cells, with Chinese players operating near full utilization and overseas S1460520080002

local capacity expansion being de-prioritised. Industry feedback points to aggressive kunlun.li@ubs.com

+86-21-3866 8894domestic expansion: CATL is targeting an additional 500 GWh by end-2026 (+65%

from 772 GWh at end-2025) according to various exhibitors, while EVE Energy plans to Paul Gong

add 260 GWh (+150% from 170 GWh). Separator leader Enjie expects to add 5bn sqm Analyst

of capacity by end-2026. New cell lines in China can still be built in 6-8 months at a cost paul.gong@ubs.com

+852-2971 7868

of ~RM100mn / GWh according to consensus among equipment makers.

Nora Min

Sodium-ion gaining traction but commercial limits remain Analyst

S1460518050001

According to media reports China shipped ~3GWh sodium-ion batteries in 2025, largely

nora.min@ubs.com

policy-driven. With lithium carbonate prices rising sharply to ~Rmb190k/ton ( +60% +86-21-3866 8905

YTD), interest in sodium ion has revived. At optimal yields, NFPP sodium-ion costs have

Cherie Miaoimproved to Rmb0.45-0.50/Wh. According to an industry expert, should sodium-ion