Getlink "2027 eleclink auctions leave upside risk to estimates; MGO BAF..."

Research evidence excerpt

Getlink "2027 eleclink auctions leave upside risk to estimates; MGO BAF..."

ich assumes €26/MWh. With current VA cons. 2027

12/26E 0.59 0.57

Eleclink estimates standing at €134m, we believe remaining capacity secured at similar

12/27E 0.60 0.59

prices leaves upside risk to consensus estimates. Whilst we see a limited valuation impact

12/28E 0.62 0.61

from higher Eleclink profitability, we see a prolonged environment of higher spreads as

supportive of further shareholder remuneration in 2027. This comes in a context in Amal Patel

which the chairman has previously suggested 'significant balance sheet deployment' in Analyst

2027 were he to be elected at the AGM on May 27th. We note €100m incremental SBBs amal.patel@ubs.com

would bring an incremental 1% yield at today's share price. +44-20-7568 3973

Cristian Nedelcu, CFA

MGO BAF rises yet to translate into market share gains; May data ahead Analyst

cristian.nedelcu@ubs.com

Getlink truck/car market share was broadly flat y/y in April with std. adv. car pricing up

+44-20-7568 4375

c7% vs. ferries 6-10% (Fig 24 onwards). We calculate the MGO BAF fuel surcharge

rising to ~€78 for May-26 (vs. €23 May-25) vs. Getlink EVA in May at €19. In a context in

which the majority of truck pricing is based on longer-term contracts (UBSe 75%), we

believe an environment of higher MGO BAF ferry surcharges provides Getlink with a

favourable backdrop to target market share. Current MGO pricing stands at $1,200/ton

(vs. $1,300/ton used in May calculation) suggesting broadly similar surcharge levels in

June. Drawing parallels from 2022 post Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we note Getlink

was able to achieve low-single-digit y/y market share gains, in a context in which MGO

BAF surcharges rose to €70-€90/trip with MGO prices >$1,500/ton.