European Beverages "BNIC: Shipments still negative in April; cognac indu..."

Research evidence excerpt

European Beverages "BNIC: Shipments still negative in April; cognac indu..."

vs Mar -41% (Q1 -38% in line with Q4). This

improvement comes after March was affected by very tough comps in the US given last

year's pre-ordering ahead of tariffs implementation. It is worth noticing it because sell-

out data points to no substantial improvement of the underlying which explains LVMH

cautiousness on US cognac market they qualified as 'soft'. As per our tracker, we note

sell-out value trends were still very weak at -8.3% in March, with Q1 -7.5% vs Q4 -9.7%

Asia shipment volumes down -9% in Apr after 5 months of growth; still

challenging market conditions

BNIC shipments to Far East (c90% volume is China) have come back to negative

territories after 5 months of strong growth. Apr shipments were -9% vs Mar +12% YoY

(Q1 +31% vs Q4 +33%). We note that relative to 2019 level, Far East cognac exports are

now -34% though vs Mar -4% (Q1 -18% vs Q4 -25%). We recently noted some

greenshoots in China. Brewers made some encouraging comments around the on-trade

which is said to be less negative with Carlsberg expecting flat market on the back off no

meaningful change in consumer behaviour (link). In addition, we recently hosted an

expert call on spirits dynamics in China where the industry insider noted marginal

improvement on the ground (link). We also note some signs of stabilisation for Moutai

wholesale price, which can be a leading indicator for wholesaler confidence. CNY

situation is however less uniform from one player to another. LVMH pointed out good

performance in CNY supporting org. sales of its Wine & spirits division and it is unclear

the extent to which is indicative of broader category improvement (unlikely in our view)

or Moet Hennessy share trends.