Structurally Improved Operating Environment, Though Largely Priced In; Hold

Research evidence excerpt

Structurally Improved Operating Environment, Though Largely Priced In; Hold

softer demand earlier in the year following inventory

build up. Bioethanol markets have been firmer, in Europe, supported by reduced imports, Figure 1 - Verbio PE FY2

high freight costs and favourable blending economics. In the US, margins have normalised 50.045.0

after a temporary squeeze from high natural gas prices, with exports and higher blending 40.035.0

rates providing support. Regionally, North America is increasingly constructive as record US 30.025.0

15.0Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026-27 improve demand visibility, while Canada benefits 20.0 10.0

indirectly via pull from the US market. 5.00.0

Near-Term Normalisation, Medium-Term Leverage - Management was explicit that Q3 Verbio Verbio 5yr Avg Verbio 3yr Avg

represents a seasonal high watermark for GHG quota monetisation, and Q4 should step .Source: FactSet

down sequentially on lower quota volumes despite still supportive pricing. As a result,

EBITDA delivery for FY25/26 is expected toward the upper end of the €100-140m range, with

management deliberately pushing back on upside extrapolation. Cash generation remains a

key positive, enabling further deleveraging (net debt/EBITDA trending below 1x by FY25/26)

and continued investment in growth projects, including the Bitterfeld ethenolysis plant (start-

up targeted for October). Importantly, leverage to GHG pricing remains substantial, with

management guiding that a €100 move in quota prices shifts annual EBITDA by €40-80m.

While no explicit 2027 EBITDA guidance was provided, the call clearly framed a structurally

improved earnings framework from 2027 onward backed by materially higher real quota