Jefferies Consumer Health Index: Gut Punch

Research evidence excerpt

Jefferies Consumer Health Index: Gut Punch

0.0%healthy spending environment. With prices at the pump now siphoning dollars from other purchases 0.0%

for many consumers, the trajectory of credit card balances will be worth watching. Lastly, our -10.0%-20.0%-30.0%

labor market proxy improved slightly M/M, but this did little to assuage the strain from the other -40.0%

Consumer Health Index 6MMA Y/Yindicators. As we will get into a little further below, the strength in the labor market has not only .

been surprising but also may remove the potential relief for US consumers via rate cuts. Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies

With Level Y/Y 6MMA Chg.Following the Apr labor market data, Jefferies' Chief US Economist, Tom Simons, pointed out

that while he doesn't see evidence that job growth is about to rocket higher, he has begun to see This

35 -19.0%evidence that goes against various narratives that have been advanced, including the difficulty new Month:

entrants are having in finding a job, the falling participation rate obscuring higher unemployment, JefferiesLast Equity Research * | Equity Analyst

(888) JEFFERIES | research_support@jefferies.com45 -15.2%and the concentrated nature of job growth in various sectors. YTD, the average monthly increase . Month:

in non-farm payrolls is +76k. In '25, the average increase was +10k per month. It is still a bit too BlakeSource: Anderson,Bloomberg, JefferiesCFA * | Equity Analyst

(212) 323-7686 | banderson2@jefferies.com

early to tell whether the tide has turned in the labor market, but the recent data support Tom's

hypothesis that the hiring slowdown in '25 was primarily due to tariff uncertainty rather than Andy Barish * | Equity Analyst

(415) 229-1524 | abarish@jefferies.com

immigration or cyclical economic weakness.