Ag Review: US Fert Markets Subdued, Global Markets Tight on Supply Constraints

Research evidence excerpt

Ag Review: US Fert Markets Subdued, Global Markets Tight on Supply Constraints

very targeting 80% by YE26, and full normalization by YE27. The disruption

(representing a ~500kt volume loss through YE26) is expected to tighten global sulfur supply and

sustain market pressure over the next 18 months. Meanwhile, US urea prices have softened ~12%

since late-March peaks, with the US market appearing comfortably supplied— supported by strong

March imports and adequate April/May arrivals—despite ongoing global supply disruptions. Iran

signaled additional export tenders, though a cargo tied to India’s latest urea import tender was

canceled due to concerns over Iranian links. In ammonia, multiple outages are tightening already

constrained supply east of the Suez. A full restoration of Middle Eastern ammonia export capacity is

unlikely before Q3, at earliest. In potash, global balances remain relatively tight, supporting modest

price increases in Brazil, China, and the US.

...With Broadly Softening Demand Only a Partial Offset: Global phosphate demand remains weak

as high prices and poor affordability delay near-term buying activity. In urea, US and China demand

remains weak with near-term needs comfortably covered. Most US discussions are centered

around autumn fill season. In India, specifically, a rapid urea drawdown is expected as Kharif

demand accelerates beginning in June. In potash, market participants are broadly waiting for formal

summer fill programs coming in June and July. While China MOP demand remains relatively stable, Laurence Alexander * | Equity Analyst

(212) 284-2553 | lalexander@jefferies.com

buyers have largely adopted a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. Brazilian potash demand for