Hedberg's Q1/26 Off-Qtr Software Earnings Preview; Idiosyncratic Optimism

Research evidence excerpt

Hedberg's Q1/26 Off-Qtr Software Earnings Preview; Idiosyncratic Optimism

to estimates. Prior to the restructuring, investor sentiment reduced out- +13% in May

was negative, then improved slightly post TEAM's (not covered) results, but have now turned negative as we believe the stock is year

range-bound in the near-term due to items we illustrated in our downgrade last month. Job postings look positive despite the estimates

pending RIF.

NTSK OP Negative -11% Neutral Shares of NTSK remain under pressure and are down considerably from last quarter and the IPO but are starting to move up after No -7% q/q 03-Jun $ 14 $ 14 0%

seemingly bottoming in late March. While we think the setup is favorable for estimates, a sizable short interest and a thin flow make -47% in May

the setup tricky in the short-term. To help solve this, the company needs to deliver more upside to Q1/27 estimates than in Q4/26 for

investors to see a higher path of estimate revisions. We think this is possible given a strong security spending environment and

what we thought was conservative guidance last qtr. Job postings look negative recently.

NTNX OP Slightly 16% Neutral We see the setup as neutral as we expect Nutanix to deliver in-line Q3 results as we feel that supply chain challenges likely keeps No +19% q/q 27-May $ 55 $ 55 0%

positive results and guidance in check. That said, we expect company-specific drivers to show traction with its on-prem element, AI strategy, +19% in May

and partnerships as we remain optimist on shares in the medium-term. Overall, we believe the company is well positioned for the AI

era that leverages hybrid architecture including a healthy on- prem component due to data privacy/governance, regulations, costs

and the proximity to data. Job postings look positive.