ALQ: FY26 Result In-Bound. Strong Result Expected; RBC Cautious on FY27 Commentary.

Research evidence excerpt

ALQ: FY26 Result In-Bound. Strong Result Expected; RBC Cautious on FY27 Commentary.

ectations. We retain our Sector Perform rating and $22.50/

share Price Target.

Result Focusses

• Strong P&L result expected RBCe & Market estimates are already there and ahead of guidance: We are focussed on underlying

NPAT at the FY26 result where we expect ALQ to deliver $371m (+24% YoY growth, +36% in 2H26) which is in-line with current

consensus expectations. ALQ guidance of 48/52 1H/2H NPAT mix implies c. $365m, i.e. RBCe/Market expectations are ahead

of guidance.

• FY27 Guidance: Current market expectation for FY27 is for $693m EBIT and $450m NPAT. Based on current FY26 expectations

this represents +17/+20% YoY growth. Given the risks posed to current exploration activity (i) through both elevated diesel prices

and access to diesel in remote areas and (ii) the challenges raising incremental equity in a volatile environment - already being

observed (Exhibits 4-7), we are cautious on ALQ's outlook commentary. Offsetting these risks, we recognise (i) the meaningful

capital raised prior to the Iran conflict for the purposes of exploration, (ii) the current gold price remaining well in excess of

gold miners all-in-sustaining-costs, and (iii) a significant part of ALQ's minerals business servicing major miners rather than the

junior market.

• Cash is king - We need to see evidence of the ability to de-leverage: A key focus from our perspective is ALQ's cash position at

the conclusion of FY26 having recorded 1.8x at the 1H26 result. Assuming the FY26 result meets expectations, we believe the

market wants evidence of ALQ's ability to de-lever given it had not managed to do in the prior period despite a strengthening

operating environment.