GLOBAL RESEARCH ARCHIVE
HOM/U: On the road to FFO recovery
Research evidence excerpt
HOM/U: On the road to FFO recovery
BSR REIT
Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary
Our Sector Perform rating is primarily a function of our risk-BSR REIT
adjusted total return expectations compared with the broader
16 125 Weeks 22DEC23 - 14MAY26 REIT/REOC sector. Key elements of the BSR REIT story include
15 the following:
TARGETTARGET 13.0013.00
12 A major market Sunbelt apartment REIT. BSR owns a portfolio
11 CURRENTCURRENT 11.3811.38
10 of predominantly high-quality, Class B properties, located
9 principally in large, suburban markets. Based on NOI, 97%
7 of the portfolio is located in BSR’s target markets of Dallas,
6 Houston, Austin, and Oklahoma City. The US Sunbelt markets
1.5m have been beneficiaries of large migration from other states,
1m leading to strong fundamentals. 500k
2024 2025 2026
D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M
HOM/U CN Rel. S&P 500 COMPOSITE MA 40 weeks Deep and liquid market supports large roll-up opportunity.
Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target Across BSR’s four target markets of Austin, Dallas, Houston,
and Oklahoma City, there were approximately $27B of garden-Valuation
style apartment transactions in 2022, versus $11B across theOur $13.00 price target is based on a 20% discount to
entire Canadian apartment sector. BSR has an active pipelineour $16.50 NAVPU estimate one year hence, which implies
of acquisition and disposition opportunities, as the REIT aimsa 19x multiple to our 2026E AFFOPU. We believe our
to recycle capital into higher-growth markets.target valuation multiple reflects BSR’s internal management
platform, significant insider ownership, and the necessity- A fully internalized and aligned platform built for growth.oriented nature of its portfolio.
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