NIQ: 1Q26 Results: April Momentum and AI-Driven Upsells Support Continued Growth

Research evidence excerpt

NIQ: 1Q26 Results: April Momentum and AI-Driven Upsells Support Continued Growth

NIQ Global Intelligence plc

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

MSD+ OCC Revenue Growth. We expect NIQ to achieve MSD+NIQ Global Intelligence plc

organic constant currency revenue growth over the midterm.

24 213 Days 22JUL25 - 14MAY26 This growth will likely be driven by value-based pricing, cross-

22 selling and upselling efforts, benefits from the GFK acquisition,

18 and entry into adjacent and higher-growth markets.

14 TARGETTARGET 13.0013.00 Margin Expansion to the Mid-20% Range. We believe NIQ

12 will continue to expand adj EBITDA margins toward the

8 CURRENTCURRENT 8.208.20 mid-20% range. Factors contributing to this include AI-driven

6 data collection and efficiency improvements in SG&A. As

30m part of NIQ's transformation efforts, margins have already

20m

10m expanded by over 500 bps, reaching ~18.5% in FY24. By

2025 2026

J A S O N D J F M A M FY27, we expect further margin expansion, supported by

NIQ US Rel. S&P 500 COMPOSITE MA 40 weeks remaining transformation initiatives, GFK synergies, and

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target operating leverage.

Valuation

Transformation Journey and Leadership. NIQ'sOur $13 price target is based on ~6x our FY27 EBITDA estimate,

transformation efforts, led by a new management team,which is roughly inline with the SMID cap value stocks in

have included overhauling its tech platform and broadeningour coverage universe, due to NIQ's 80%+ recurring revenue

its coverage. These changes have improved client retention,base and MSD organic revenue growth, but below the broader

pricing, and sales efficiency through cross-selling andinfo services peer group given the IPO discount, higher net

upselling.