Australian Research at a Glance - May 15, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Research at a Glance - May 15, 2026

AUSTRALIAN RESEARCH AT A GLANCE

Company Comments

Wei-Weng Chen (Analyst) Bapcor Limited (ASX: BAP; 0.52)

+61 2 9033 3320; wei-weng.chen@rbccm.com Published May 14 2026 02:18:28 EDT

Jackie Moody (Analyst)

+612 9033 3108; jackie.moody@rbccm.com Model Update

Rating: Sector Perform

Risk Qualifier: Speculative Risk

Price Target: 0.70 ↓ 1.10

Our view: Despite initial improved sales momentum since BAP's last update in

February, trading conditions have materially deteriorated since the war in the

Middle East from late March prompting a downgrade to FY26 EBITDA guidance (-5%

on a post AASB-16 basis, -15% on a pre AASB-16 basis). The downgrade reflects i)

an assumed continuation of April trading conditions for the remainder of FY26, ii)

higher fuel, freight and supplier costs driven by the Middle East conflict and iii) A

depreciation of the NZD/AUD FX rate.

Owen Birrell (Analyst) GrainCorp Limited (ASX: GNC; 5.38)

+61 3 8688 6519; owen.birrell@rbccm.com Published May 14 2026 03:54:08 EDT

Tom Peyton (Associate)

+61 3 8688 6502; tom.peyton@rbccm.com 1H26 Result inline, but market increasingly concerned by FY27 outlook. Remain

Sector Perform

Price Target: 6.50 ↓ 7.75

Our view: Graincorp (GNC) has delivered an in line 1H26 result and reiterated

FY26 guidance, however we believe the lower than expected 'core cash' position

and concerns around the 2026-27 Winter Crop outlook, saw the stock down -13%.

GNC continues to manage the business well, however its leverage to both: (i) the

mixed production outlook and (ii) soft global grain pricing has seen earnings under

pressure. While we think today's stock price reaction is overdone, we remain Sector

Perform rated ahead of ABARES initial 2026-27 Winter Crop estimate on 2 June.