Up on the Rooftop March 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Up on the Rooftop March 2026

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Christopher Dendrinos, CFA

(Analyst)

(212) 428-6522,

christopher.dendrinos@rbccm.com

Laura Deng (Senior

Associate)

(212) 618-7527,

May 14, 2026 laura.deng@rbccm.com

Up on the Rooftop March 2026RESEARCH Residential Market Share Review

Our view: We review the most recent residential solar data in CA. Overall, data shows modest changes

in market share but not sufficient to identify a trend. Monthly reported data is reported on a lag and

is limited, but CA represents the largest percentage of residential solar and storage capacity in the U.S.

Together, we estimate CA and NY represent ~40% of residential solar capacity. CA data is for March, and

NY data is for April.

CA demand modestly down. Overall, installed residential capacity and number of installed projectsEQUITY in March were down sequentially by ~9%/5.5%, but only ~1.5%/1.5% y/y. CA experienced a surge

in installations at YE25 which bled into 1/2026, but installations are now normalizing. Assuming

installations stabilize in April then we believe this will be taken as a positive signal of demand resiliency.

YTD, overall capacity installed is up ~12% y/y despite the termination of 25D tax credits.

TPO adoption flat m/m. TPO share was up slightly m/m at ~37% and has remained at this level for the

past ~5 months. This is down from ~48% in May/June 2025 ahead of the passage of the OB3. Industry

is rolling out pre-paid lease (PPL) offerings and ENPH is currently piloting programs in multiple states

that allow its customer base to access 48E credits. Large financial providers such as LightReach and

GoodLeap are working to onboard additional installers to support the transition, but challenges in the