CRMD: 1Q26: Beat And Raise Highlights Good Execution, Though Future TDAPA Dynamics Still A Near-Term Driver

Research evidence excerpt

CRMD: 1Q26: Beat And Raise Highlights Good Execution, Though Future TDAPA Dynamics Still A Near-Term Driver

Diluted

the DefenCath guide increase to $175-$190M from $150-$170M; we think 2025 0.30A 0.28A 1.26A 0.15A 2026 0.42A 0.31E (0.16)E (0.21)E

there is still potential for upside on deeper penetration among customers Prev. 0.43E 0.22E (0.18)E (0.24)E

(especially through Medicare Advantage), and new adds if there is progress

with the final LDO. MA remains a key source of potential future growth, and AllPricedvaluesas ofin priorUSD unlesstradingotherwiseday's marketnoted.close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

the team has noted constructive conversations (and our survey suggests

openness), but contracting is still expected to take more time. That said,

we are taking up our numbers (now est. $189M in DefenCath sales for

'26). Finally, we could see upside on legislative or executive rulemaking

around TDAPA, with mgmt noting a concerted push and interest from

stakeholders, though we remain cautious given the gridlock in Washington,

and the administration's focus on other issues. The team also discussed

the cadence for the rest of the year, expecting ~$60M in 2Q revenues (we

now est. $61M) and a large TDAPA associated stepdown in 2H, and while

volumes are better and the co is making progress on floor pricing, it is still

too early to adjust the 2027 guide.

Rezzayo remains a key pipeline driver, and can help bridge the gap to

TPN. Mgmt remained pleased with the topline win from Rezzayo, and

are working closely with Mundi, with a preNDA meeting expected in the

coming weeks, and an sNDA to be filed in 2H26. While too early to comment

about alignment on the package and the label, we think there is potential

for a broad label that can enable ~$200M in 2035 sales for the product.