JM - PGM market report

Research evidence excerpt

JM - PGM market report

RBC Europe Limited

Ben Davis (Analyst)

+44 20 7002 2065,

ben.davis@rbccm.com

Marina Calero (Analyst)

+44 20 7429 8785,

marina.calero@rbccm.com

Laura Chan (Analyst)

May 14, 2026 +44 20 7029 7537,

laura.chan@rbccm.com

Nana Adwoa Sereboo JM - PGM market report (Associate)

+44 20 7653 4156,RESEARCH Markets remain aggregate deficit nanaadwoa.sereboo@rbccm.com

Our view: Johnson Matthey has published its annual PGM supply and demand report ahead of Platinum

week (typically expected to come on the Monday). The report doesn't veer too far from the consensus

with the expectation of platinum, iridium and ruthenium to stay in deficit, and palladium and rhodium

(combined 44% of spot revenues for VALT) falling into small surpluses. The report is heavily caveated

that it has not incorporated the potential impact of the conflict in the Middle East on auto demand and

scrappage rates, which we sympathise with given that the market continues to price in a very speedy

resolution.EQUITY

On balance, we believe they are being too conservative on jewellery and investment demand

expectations (we expected renewed momentum in gold/silver to help pull in interest), and too optimistic

on scrap supply. It does hit on the current fan favourite of ruthenium on the data centre theme, where

prices are already up +158% Y/Y, but “looks set to remain in deep structural deficit” and will be further

exacerbated as purchasers stock for investment purposes. We remain bullish on the price outlook across

PGMs, and maintain Outperform on Valterra Platinum (PT, 8000p) and Sibanye Stillwater (Restricted).

Key takeaways:

• Platinum stays in deficit - despite shrinking jewellery expectations and v. conservative investment

demand of 171koz. Ruthenium and iridium stay large deficits.