Athens Airport International: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Athens Airport International: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Athens Airport International (AIAr.AT)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Passenger traffic growth (YoY

6.7 4.0 3.4 3.0

change) (%)

Passenger aeronautical fee (YoY

41.4 (10.3) 4.1 4.0

Actual Air Activities ROCE (%) 17.4 14.3 13.7 14.5

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Monthly passenger traffic data & airlines' seat RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

capacity outlook Traffic delivery on Athens as fashionable

Plane deliveries and orders at Aegean / Sky destination, high airlines seat capacity growth Sales /

Express Stagflation environment (high inflation / low Revenue 664 692

DPS / yield premium vs. EU Airport peers rates) (€, mn) 677

Inflation (EU27 HICP) + interest rate De-risking of the 40MAP expansion (EPC

environment (Greece/EU) contract/schedule)

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 390 430GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE (€, mn)

Disruption to traffic/operations during 410

construction phase (2026-32)

Dislocation in Greek/European real yield

0.64

100% Europe ex UK Diluted sales uplift on full 40MAP opening EPS

0.59 0.66

(2032) (€)

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

View explanation of regional hierarchies here DPS Inst. Owners, % Active 76.5% 0.63 0.68

(€)

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 3x 0.65

HF Sector Net Exposure 34.3%

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /

(Across all sectors: Long Exposure – Short Exposure).