Global Macro Commentary: May 18: Global Bond Selloff Moderates

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Commentary: May 18: Global Bond Selloff Moderates

Update

May 18, 2026 09:50 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Macro Commentary | Global Molly Nickolin

Strategist

May 18: Global Bond Selloff Molly.Nickolin@morganstanley.comLingdi Xu +1 212 761-3592

Economist

Lingdi.Xu@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2957

Moderates Sofia Palacios

Sofia.Palacios@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428

Iran headlines drove sharp intraday reversals in oil and rates;

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

global curves steepened on inflation concerns; AI and Gek Teng Khoo

momentum underperformed; GBP rallied on UK fiscal-rule StrategistGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303

headlines; DXY at 98.99 (-0.3%); US 10y at 4.59 (-0.5bp).

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Hiromu UezatoMarkets spent most of the session focused on the implications of elevated oil

prices and higher-for-longer inflation risks before late headlines around a Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431

potential pause in US action toward Iran triggered a reversal lower in oil and a

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

retracement in global yields. Nimish M Prabhune

Developed Markets Nimish.Prabhune@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1862

• US Treasuries experienced a volatile session, with the curve initially bear- Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Maria Chiara Russo

steepening before retracing into the close after President Trump made Strategist

de-escalatory comments while negotiations continued. Earlier in the Maria.Chiara.Russo@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3499

session, concerns around elevated oil prices and persistent inflation

pressures pushed the 30y yield as high as 5.16%, near the highest levels since

2007. By the close, the curve had stabilized with modest steepening