Global Economic Briefing: The Weekly Worldview: A Fluid Outlook – Structural Strength vs. Cyclical Weakness

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Global Economic Briefing: The Weekly Worldview: A Fluid Outlook – Structural Strength vs. Cyclical Weakness

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May 18, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Economic Briefing | North America Seth B Carpenter

Chief Global Economist

The Weekly Worldview: A Fluid Seth.Carpenter@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc (DIFC Branch)+1 212 761-0370

Rajeev Sibal

Senior Global EconomistOutlook – Structural Strength Rajeev.Sibal@morganstanley.com +971 4 709-7201

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCvs. Cyclical Weakness Arunima Sinha

Global Economist

We discuss our constructive outlook for the global economy. Arunima.Sinha@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4125

Energy volatility generates a wide range of outcomes, while the Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.

Chiwoong Lee

AI boom remains a critical driver of demand, but its effects on Principal Global Economist

productivity are a wild card. Chiwoong.Lee@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8920

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Mayank Phadke, CFA

EconomistMThe economic outlook remains constructive, though not as strong as we forecasted

Mayank.Phadke@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1531

a few months ago. High energy prices will boost inflation and weigh on growth, but

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited

structural fundamentals were robust before the conflict and—so far—remain so.

Priyan Mody

The energy shock is still brief, at less than three months, but the longer it persists, Economist

the bigger the effects will be. In the US and Asia, the higher costs have been Priyan.Mody@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1855

absorbed so far; our constructive outlook endures. Europe is more exposed, as a net

energy importer and without fiscal stabilizers in place, the pass through to inflation