Crude for Thought: AECO Musings; Slivers of Hope

Research evidence excerpt

Crude for Thought: AECO Musings; Slivers of Hope

May 14, 2026 | 19:38 ET~

Oil & Gas

Crude for Thought: AECO Musings; Slivers of Hope Oil & Gas

Randy Ollenberger Analyst

randy.ollenberger@bmo.com (403) 515-1502

Tariq Saad, CFA Analyst

Bottom Line: tariq.saad@bmo.com (403) 515-1519

Crude prices rose again as the on-again/off-again deal between Iran and the U.S. was Phillip Jungwirth, CFA* Analyst

off again. Oil prices have been kept partially in check (so far) by inventory draws and phillip.jungwirth@bmo.com (303) 436-1127

lower demand. Refinery runs in Asia are down roughly 2.7 million b/d largely due to Jeremy McCrea, CFA Analyst

a lack of crude feedstock. The clock continues to tick as inventory draws cannot last jeremy.mccrea@bmo.com (403) 355-1444

forever. NYMEX prices got a slight bump despite storage injections that were largely in John Gibson, CFA Analyst

line with expectations. Summer AECO prices have improved materially versus a month johng.gibson@bmo.com (403) 515-1527

ago (spot still below last year's levels) as WCSB volume growth has taken a serious David Lee, CFA Senior Associate

breather. Summer-to-date exports to the U.S. Pacific continue to be ~0.9 bcf/d below David6.lee@bmo.com (403) 355-1451

seasonal levels. As we discuss below/inside, we see flows starting to normalize in Legal Entity: BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.

Q3/26 in order to keep regional storage ample going into the winter. BMO Capital Markets Corp.*

Key Points What's Inside

1) AECO Musings; Slivers of Hope

Crude Oil. WTI prices rose ~7.5% this week with both the U.S. and Iran unwilling to

compromise, leaving the global oil market in a fragile status-quo. President Trump's

visit to China is ongoing without any meaningful updates regarding Iran. Note that