European Chocolate Melted chocolate: Volume softness risks Lindt LFL 26E

Research evidence excerpt

European Chocolate Melted chocolate: Volume softness risks Lindt LFL 26E

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

19 May 2026

European Chocolate

Melted chocolate: Volume softness risks Lindt LFL 26E

The most recent Europe chocolate market data last Friday (15th May) shows a European Food Producers and

continued weak volume demand, both for the industry overall, but particularly for Household & Personal Care

Lindt & Sprüngli (UW). Chocolate market volumes are contracting YTD close to Products

MSD. Lindt in Europe, however, has seen sell-out volumes decline -12%, and Edward G Hockin AC

value flat. With Europe LFL also facing a tough comparative, we expect the region (44-20) 7742-6937

to weigh on Group LFL in H126 at +4.4%, raising the risk of further H2 edward.hockin@jpmorgan.com

disappointment if volume inflection does not materialize, leading to JPMe LFL Celine Pannuti, CFA

26E at 3.9% (with risk to guidance 4-6%). Lindt pricing looks increasingly (44-20) 7134-7123

celine.pannuti@jpmorgan.com

disconnected from the wider market and weighing on volume share, whilst price

Prem Sirisuttinunt

gaps risk stymieing volume recovery, which may need to be addressed with price

(44-20) 3493-4568

concessions and reinvestment in FY27. We expect FY26-27 top-line weakness and sakdipong.sirisuttinunt@jpmorgan.com

increasing scrutiny on the sustainability of a pricing-driven EPS algorithm to J.P. Morgan Securities plc

continue to weigh on the stock’s premium valuation of 28x PE 27E.

Specialist Sales contact details:

• Lindt UW - H126 softness augurs FY26 top-line risk. With the latest Europe Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

NielsenIQ data last week confirming a soft YTD for Lindt in volumes and European Consumer

value, we expect organic sales of 4.4% in H126.