Hydrocarbons are easier than high-net worth Adding to the Fujairah pipeline is a great idea. But it won’t jumpstart Dubai’s service-led economy. Stick to MSCI Saudi in MENA over MSCI UAE.

Research evidence excerpt

Hydrocarbons are easier than high-net worth Adding to the Fujairah pipeline is a great idea. But it won’t jumpstart Dubai’s service-led economy. Stick to MSCI Saudi in MENA over MSCI UAE.

David Aserkoff, CFA AC Global Markets Strategy

(44-20) 7134-5887 19 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com

shock to the non-oil sector and the auto-correlation of consensus earnings (tomorrow’s

revisions are similar to today’s), we expect more downward revisions. We read through

many of the transcripts of 1Q earnings calls with many UAE companies giving little specific

guidance to 2Q and little granular detail on the magnitude of the March slowdown. Moreover,

at an index level, MSCI UAE earnings were below the 2019 pre-COVID level until 2023 -

sometimes, recovery takes a long time.

Real Estate: IMF study shows 20% potential downside from current peak levels to

previous trough, but slow summer seasonality stops simplistic summarisation

We think the longer the conflict persists, the longer the shadow will be cast, at least in terms

of the long-term population growth trend. OQood registrations (off-plan registrations) were

-14% oya in April according to real estate consultancy ValuStrat, with prices -8% in Mar

+April even if April was still +5.9% oya. Moreover, when we look at Emaar Properties

property sales (Figure 5EmarPropertysalesandunitssoldbelow from the 1Q earnings presentation), trend growth was 14%

CAGR from 2016-2023 and then total sales jumped +90% in ’25 over ’23 and the price per

unit rose >50% in ’25 over ’23 as per their 1Q earnings release below (in part a mix shift from

apartments to villas). The IMF puts housing prices c 10% above trend, which is below the

2014 peak. If we take the extreme view of pushing prices to 10% below trend, which are the