HCA Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

HCA Model Update

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

18 May 2026

HCA Neutral

HCA, HCA US

Model Update Price (18 May 26):$422.79

▼Price Target (Dec-26):$490.00

Prior (Dec-26):$535.00

Following 1Q earnings (see our takeaways and our follow-up with management),

we are updating our estimates and price target. Our revised estimates reflect the 1Q Managed Care and Facilities

performance and maintained expectations in 2026, with our 2026 revenue Benjamin Rossi AC

increasing to $78,680M (+4.1% y/y and vs prior $78,650M) and adj EBITDA (1-212) 622-9603

decreasing to $15,925M (+2.3% y/y and vs prior $15,950M). This factors benjamin.rossi@jpmorgan.com

sequential increases to volume HWs from eAPTC expiration and related Lisa C. Gill

enrollment/eligibility changes, with our model forecasting consolidated adj (1-212) 622-6466

lisa.c.gill@jpmorgan.com

admissions growth of +2.0% y/y, ~$300 in related MSPP revenue HWs, and

John Stansel, CFA

elevated prof fee growth (~HSD% y/y) partially offset by ~$400M in resiliency

(1-212) 622-0083

efforts and another ~$125M in Hurricane recovery efforts (allocated ~75% costs/ john.stansel@jpmorgan.com

~25% expenses). For 2027, we lower our estimates for revenue to $81,850M Cole Harris

(+4.0% y/y and vs prior $81,900M) and adj EBITDA to $16,720M (+5.0% y/y and (1-212) 622-9068

vs prior $16,750M) that factors a step-up in volume growth, some deceleration to cole.harris@jpmorgan.com

prof fee growth, and another ~$400M from the resiliency program, partially offset J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

by an incremental ~$600M in ACA Exchange-related HWs. We maintain our

Neutral rating while decreasing our December 2026 price target to $490 (from

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

$535) that applies a ~9.7x target multiple (vs prior ~10.3x) on our 2027E adj