JPM Mining Daily Iron Ore -1.4%, NdPr Oxide -3.4%, Aluminium Dashboard, Anglo American, Steel Authority of India & More

Research evidence excerpt

JPM Mining Daily Iron Ore -1.4%, NdPr Oxide -3.4%, Aluminium Dashboard, Anglo American, Steel Authority of India & More

Lyndon Fagan AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(61-2) 9003-8648 19 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

forecasts a 1.9Mmt primary deficit in 2026, the largest relative to market size since 2000. The

forward curve is firmly in backwardation, with the market expecting price tension to ease as

Middle East supply recovers in 2H26. In equities, we are OW across most of our global

coverage, with the exception of Alcoa / Ma’aden (Neutral).

Anglo American

Two announcements: 1) Steelmaking coal sale for max $3.9bn (+ve); 2) Collahuasi

desalination plant (-ve)

Our Take: $3.9bn coal sale positive, Collahuasi update negative: Anglo American has

issued two separate statements this morning. 1) Anglo has agreed the sale of its Steelmaking

Coal assets to Dhilmar Limited (a private UK company) for $2.3bn upfront cash and $1.58bn

deferred payments, for a total potential consideration of $3.875bn. The headline $3.875bn

compares favourably with Anglo’s previous attempted sale to Peabody ($2.05bn upfront

cash, $1.7bn deferred, for a total $3.8bn) and JPM’s valuation of $2.7bn, which models our

assessment of up-front payments and deferred payments. 2)Anglo and Glencore announced

that Collahuasi’s desalination environmental authorisation has been “set aside”. Anglo and

Glencore state they expect “no immediate impact on production”. Collahuasi production was

negatively impacted in 2025 and Q1’26 by lower recoveries from stockpiles that were being

treated prior to the ramp-up of the desalination plant in H2’26. Our analysis indicates that a

protracted suspension of the desalination plant could have negative implications for