J.P. Morgan U.S. FTM 18 May 26 Global Data Watch; Retailing Dept Stores & Specialty Softlines; BIRK; OLLI; Beverage Cans; OCS; US Equity Derivatives Strategy and More

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan U.S. FTM 18 May 26 Global Data Watch; Retailing Dept Stores & Specialty Softlines; BIRK; OLLI; Beverage Cans; OCS; US Equity Derivatives Strategy and More

North America Equity Research

U.S. First to Market 18 May 2026

Top Stories

Global Data Watch (Bruce Kasman)

The price of war, and resilience

• Energy prices and cyclical strength signal sustained sticky core inflation

• Consumer spending softer in Europe and Japan, but holding up in the US

• Absent weakening growth, central banks to turn more hawkish

• Next week: DM flash PMIs (May); UK/Jpn CPI; BI hike

AFL | Retailing Dept Stores & Specialty Softlines (Matthew R. Boss, CPA)

Boss’ 1Q Preview - Macro Update & Stock Specific Setups

Into 1Q EPS kicking off this week across our Retailing coverage - we thought value-add to share our recent

fieldwork, management access takeaways, and model implications across our Dept Stores, Specialty Softlines, Off-Pricers,

and Dollar/Discount Stores universe.

Setting the backdrop into 1Q26 EPS prints, average P/E multiples across our Retailing Department Stores & Specialty Softlines

coverage now stand at 14x - representing a ~25% discount relative to the 2017-19 (pre-pandemic) 19x multiple

average reflecting the #1 inbound investor concern of “softening” in the consumer into 2H26 following the onset of the Middle

East conflict (& its inflationary impact on gas/energy prices).

Birkenstock (Matthew R. Boss, CPA) (BIRK, OW, PT $49.00)

Key Management Meeting Takeaways & Model Implications

We hosted CFO Ivica Krolo and Director of Investor Relations Megan Kulick for investor meetings and thought value-add to

share our key takeaways and model implications.

6 Key Management Incremental Takes: