Retailing Dept Stores & Specialty Softlines Boss’ 1Q Preview - Macro Update & Stock Specific Setups

Research evidence excerpt

Retailing Dept Stores & Specialty Softlines Boss’ 1Q Preview - Macro Update & Stock Specific Setups

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

18 May 2026

Retailing Dept Stores & Specialty

Softlines

Boss’ 1Q Preview - Macro Update & Stock Specific

Setups

Retailing – Department Stores &

Specialty Softlines

Matthew R. Boss, CPA AC

(1-212) 622-2630

matthew.boss@jpmorgan.com

Into 1Q EPS kicking off this week across our Retailing coverage - we thought Amanda K. Douglas

value-add to share our recent fieldwork, management access takeaways, and (1-212) 622 0316

amanda.douglas@jpmorgan.com

model implications across our Dept Stores, Specialty Softlines, Off-Pricers, and

Brady T Arnette, CFA

Dollar/Discount Stores universe.

(1-212) 622-0046

brady.arnette@jpmorgan.com

Setting the backdrop into 1Q26 EPS prints, average P/E multiples across our

Lucas Hudson

Retailing Department Stores & Specialty Softlines coverage now stand at 14x (1-212) 622-0273

- representing a ~25% discount relative to the 2017-19 (pre-pandemic) 19x lucas.hudson@jpmchase.com

multiple average reflecting the #1 inbound investor concern of “softening” in Taya Lindner

the consumer into 2H26 following the onset of the Middle East conflict (& its (1-212) 622-9424

inflationary impact on gas/energy prices). Near-term, our updated models reflect taya.lindner@jpmorgan.com

a “1Q meet or beat” setup across SSS/EPS for ~90% of our coverage, with our J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Chase credit card data to-date pointing to consistent consumer spending into early

May, “consistent” with US demand cited across sector laterals (both Retail &

Leisure).

I. Breaking Down the “Fear vs. Facts” on the Macro:

(1) The US Consumer = Consistent Spending Patterns To-Date: While