Beverage Cans We Upgrade Ball and Crown to Overweight

Research evidence excerpt

Beverage Cans We Upgrade Ball and Crown to Overweight

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

18 May 2026

Beverage Cans

We Upgrade Ball and Crown to Overweight

We upgrade Ball and Crown, the two leading global aluminum can producers, to Chemicals: Specialty, Commodity,

Overweight from Neutral based on valuation. Over a one-year period the S&P 500 Agricultural, and Paper & Packaging

is higher by 25%, Ball is up 3% and Crown is (4%) lower. The S&P has increased Jeffrey J. Zekauskas AC

8% year to date; Ball shares are higher by 4%; and Crown is lower by (7%). (1-212) 622-6644

Beverage can industry supply/demand balances have tightened because of jeffrey.zekauskas@jpmorgan.com

rationalization steps by major producers. Aluminum cans appear to be the Silke Kueck

preferred packaging medium by the growing branded energy drink sellers. Growth (1-212) 622-6503

rates are being supplemented by small acquisition activity. We think both silke.x.kueck@jpmorgan.com

companies should increase volumes by 3%-4% this year. The stocks often trade Katie Zhang

(1-212) 622-3262

shorter-term on consolidated volume growth momentum, which we think should katie.zhang@jpmchase.com

accelerate sequentially in 2Q:26 due to positive South American demand and

Lydia Huang

production variability. Both Ball and Crown offer estimated free cash flow yields (1-212) 622-0086

between 6% and 8% over the coming two years. Both companies should be less lydia.huang@jpmorgan.com

than 3x leveraged by the end of 2026. Crown trades between 7x-8x EBITDA and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Ball trades between 9x-10x EBITDA. Ball’s EPS growth in 2026E we think is 12%

while Crown’s EPS growth is lower at 3% after increasing more than 20% in 2025.

Our December 2026 target for Crown is $107 and $60 for Ball. We think