Inclusio (AO) | Buy | Q1 2026: limited growth and margin contraction

Research evidence excerpt

Inclusio (AO) | Buy | Q1 2026: limited growth and margin contraction

Inclusio Buy | Target Price: EUR21.00

Company description Management

Inclusio is the leading Belgian real estate company with a social focus. It aims to Lionel Van Rillaer , CEO

address the current supply/demand mismatch challenges in social housing by Jean-Luc Colson, CFO

providing affordable and quality rental housing and other social infrastructure. Key shareholders

Free float 66.77%

Investment case Valuation methodology

Inclusio is the sole Belgian REIT active exclusively in affordable We value Inclusio using a DCF (70% weighting, WACC: 5.8%,

housing, aiming at balancing profit and social purpose, in an terminal g: 1.5%), a DDM (15% weighting), and a NAV-based

overly undersupplied market relying on strong structural trends model adjusted for dividends (30% weighting).

(growing population, single families, etc.) Risks to our rating

Finally, its suboptimal capital structure leaves room for (-) Rise in interest rates.

substantial firepower before hitting its 45-50% target, leaving (-) Deterioration of social residential market leading to a

scope for the company to reach its objectives and secure further derating of the investment portfolio.

opportunities along the way. (-) Change in regulatory environment, negatively impacting the

We expect continued earnings growth and momentum in the company.

operating trajectory beyond 2025E, supported by LFL and the

development pipeline/acquisitions.

Catalysts

Completion of development pipeline.

Acquisitions.

Strong earnings prints.

Key data charts

Price performance Revenue breakdown by division Asset breakdown by division

SWOT analysis

Strengths Weaknesses

Strong ability to pass on rent inflation. Still small in size.