Crédit Agricole SA (1K) | Not Rated | The case still holds

Research evidence excerpt

Crédit Agricole SA (1K) | Not Rated | The case still holds

Crédit Agricole SA Not Rated | Target Price: none

Company description Management

Crédit Agricole SA, the listed vehicle and central organisation of Crédit Agricole Group, Olivier Gavalda, CEO

underwent a major simplification in 2016. Since then, the business model has evolved Jérôme Grivet (Deputy CEO) Clotilde L'Angevin (Deputy GM)

from a complex French bank to a simplified European financial services company, with

strong pan-European franchises in private banking, insurance and consumer finance Key shareholders

in particular. CASA has created a virtuous circle of strong cash generation, enabling, in Free float 30.10% SAS Rue La Boétie 63.50%

turn, profitable acquisitions and generous shareholder remuneration Employees 6.40%

Treasury shares 0.04%

Investment case Valuation methodology

n A bank for the 21st century, where the multiplicity of n We have no TP for CASA.

stakeholders makes for an ideal balance between clients,

Risks to our rating employees, shareholders, reputation, governance, and

n Lower profitability of CAPFM in the short term due to CoR and climate.

pressure on margins.n An asset-light business model that is more resilient to

n UniCredit terminating its contract with Amundi regulatory changes than most.

n A business model with very little dependence on interest rates. n The Italian situation stalling

Catalysts

n Financial impact of all recently announced deals (De Groof

Petercam, Thaler, Milleis, ICG).

n Clarification of situation in Italy

n Regional banks selling to improve liquidity

Key data charts

CET 1 ratio Segment revenue Return on tangible book value

French retail 12.6% 15.0%

7%-1% 14% 14.5% Int'l retail

12.1% 14.0%

13.5%

SFS 24% 14%

11.6% 13.0%

Savings 12.5%

11.1% 12.0%

12%

CIB 11.5%