Counting Contrails: Tracking Global Aircraft Schedules & Flight Activity #184

Research evidence excerpt

Counting Contrails: Tracking Global Aircraft Schedules & Flight Activity #184

Aerospace & Defense

Aerospace - Market Overweight

AEROSPACE May 14, 2026

Counting Contrails: Tracking Global Aircraft Schedules & TICKER RTG PT % UP

ATI OP $171 3.7%Flight Activity #184

BA OP $275 14.3%

CR OP $225 25.3%

The Wolfe Byte EMBJ OP $83 42.5%

Counting Contrails is our weekly look at global flight schedules & actual flight FTAI OP $346 29.5%

activity dissected by aircraft/engine type and region of flight. This week: some seq GE OP $360 22.2%

HEI PP NA NA

flight activity improvement, but continued sched trims. HWM OP $300 9.8%

HXL OP $101 9.1%

RTX OP $235 31.9%

Global Scheduled Capacity Update SARO OP $35 30.9%

May scheduled capacity is tracking to -1% y/y with 70bps of w/w trims (-310bps TDG OP $1,745 45.2%

ME, -250bps China Dom, -110bps Africa), while June was also trimmed 70bps and VSEC OP $255 41.3%

is now +2.3% y/y (-280bps in ME and broad trims in other regions). 2Q scheduled WWD OP $425 14.9% OP=Outperform, PP=Peer Perform,

capacity is currently set to fall 0.2% y/y vs. 1Q's +4% (actual 1Q flown capacity UP=Underperform, NR=Not Rated

growth closer to 2%). We saw small trims across 3Q schedules this week with the

quarter pointing to 4% growth. NB capacity is set to grow 2%/5% in 2Q/3Q while

WB capacity growth is -3%/2%.

Actual Flown Capacity (Total & by Route)

May flown capacity (as of 5/10) is -2.2% which compares to -3.0% in April. Myles Walton, PhD, CFA

ME routes continue to lead declines but we are seeing some continued seq mwalton@wolferesearch.com

improvement from Apr while other regions have slowed and are now seeing y/y (617) 675-6840 View Myles’s Research

declines (APAC Dom, NA Dom, and NA & LATAM). APAC & ME is down the most View Comp Table