MCOs - Updating our State Level Medicaid Enrollment Tracker

Research evidence excerpt

MCOs - Updating our State Level Medicaid Enrollment Tracker

Managed Care

MCOs - Updating our State Level Medicaid Enrollment May 14, 2026

Tracker

●Updating our Medicaid Enrollment tracker – We recently began publishing

our work on state level Medicaid enrollment, utilizing individual state Medicaid

data to analyze membership over time – see our recent report here. With this

report / slides we update for March / April data with 62% / 18% represented vs.

previous 39% / 0% as of last report. March and April data indicate no slowdown Justin Lake, CFA

in attrition with states updated thru March down 72bps of enrollment in March jlake@wolferesearch.com

(646) 582-9280

vs. 57ps/58bps respectively in Jan/Feb and the 18% of enrollment measured View Justin’s Research

thru April down 37bps in the month vs. 30bps in March but a slowdown vs. Jan/ View Comp Table

Feb of 64/50bps respectively. As we illustrate on page 11 – of the 11 states that Dillon Nissan

updated enrollment for April AR and IN were down the most at -2.0% month dnissan@wolferesearch.com

(646) 582-9281

over month with offset of several states showing growth including NJ which

grew for the 3rd month in a row at 0.7%, NM up 0.8%, WV up 0.3% and MN up Ben Tenner

btenner@wolferesearch.com

for the second month in a row at 0.2%. (646) 582-9289

●January Cohort – Thru Jan we saw an overall decline of -60bps m/m from Dec-

Jan and that this sample represents 96% of 2025 year-end enrollment.

●February Cohort – For States through Feb we saw an overall decline of -61bps

m/m thru Jan, and an additional -65bps decline m/m thru Feb. We highlight this

enrollment represents 95% of 2025YE enrollment.

●March Cohort – We saw an overall decline of -57bps m/m thru Jan, an