1Q26 AI Preview: 99 Problems But a Chip Ain't One

Research evidence excerpt

1Q26 AI Preview: 99 Problems But a Chip Ain't One

Semiconductors

Semiconductor Devices - Market Overweight

1Q26 AI Preview: 99 Problems But a Chip Ain't One May 14, 2026

The Wolfe Byte

We remain bullish in AI names under coverage; CapEx spending estimates continue to rise and readthroughs from

supply chain are strong. Raise NVDA / AVGO estimates on higher pricing / content. Reiterate OP ratings on NVDA,

AVGO, MRVL.

Our note previews AI Compute company earnings (NVDA, AVGO, MRVL) and provides an update to our AI Accelerator

Model, which contains a comprehensive view of all AI accelerators, including unit forecasts, pricing and specifications.

We feel that one of the main factors holding back AI compute stocks earlier this year was concerns about the ability

of CSPs to accelerate or maintain cloud capex into next year. Post April earnings, it's clear that CY26 CapEx is strong.

Some investors have concerns that CSP cash flow won't be sufficient to support CapEx growth next year. Our view is

that the rise of agentic AI means that hyperscalers simply have no choice but to spend. The alternative would be to not

participate in the rise of agentic AI, and we don't think that's a choice any are prepared to make. Given the rise in AI-

related stocks since the beginning of April, that investor concern appears to have diminished.

The elephant in the room with respect to AI compute has been the underperformance of NVDA. While all AI compute

names have been underperforming through 1Q, AMD, AVGO, and MRVL have had strong runs over the last six weeks.

NVDA is still up 28% over that period but has still underperformed the group. Company-specific concerns on NVDA

include share loss to custom ASICs and margin concerns due to memory pricing. But we think perhaps the most