Global Research Highlights: Best earnings season since 2021 despite geopolitical overhang

Research evidence excerpt

Global Research Highlights: Best earnings season since 2021 despite geopolitical overhang

Accessible version

Global Research Highlights

Best earnings season since 2021 despite

geopolitical overhang

Investment Strategy

15 May 2026

Best earnings season since 2021 (+26% YoY growth) Global

With results from 445 S&P 500 companies (86% of index earnings) now in, 1Q26 Investment Strategy

earnings season has blown past expectations. Four stats to know: 1) The S&P 500 is on BofAS

pace to deliver 26% EPS growth YoY (18% excluding large one-time gains recognized by Derek Harris

Portfolio Strategist

Amazon, Google and Meta) vs. consensus forecast of just 12% on April 1. 2) Strength BofAS

isn’t confined to mega-cap Tech – the median stock is growing EPS by a solid 12% YoY. +1 646 743 0218 derek.harris@bofa.com

3) 64% of companies beat both EPS and sales expectations, nearly 20ppt ahead of the

Thomas Hopkins

historical average of 42% since 2001. 4) Sales growth adjusted for FX and inflation is on Portfolio Strategist

pace to rise 7% YoY. All of these metrics are the best since 2021. BofAS

thopkins2@bofa.com

AI data center TAM now ~$1.7Tn by CY30, +45% CAGR Evan Morris

In-line with our view of stronger AI infra capex outlook (see Q1 cloud capex takeaways), BofAS

we update our CY30 AI data center systems TAM outlook to ~$1.7Tn AI DC vs. ~$1.4Tn evan.morris@bofa.com

prior. Despite ongoing concerns around capex sustainability and the ability to fund

them, we believe: 1) 2026 will continue to be a year of accelerating AI sales and ROIs

Top Macro reports(OpenAI, Anthropic upcoming IPOs likely to provide improving prospects), while 2) 2027

The RIC Report 2could see improving tokenomics/efficiency as new architecture compute/memory Jared Woodard

systems ramp.