DeBLASEing the Trail: Head in the Cloud: An Update on the Data Center Capex Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

DeBLASEing the Trail: Head in the Cloud: An Update on the Data Center Capex Outlook

Deutsche Bank

Research

North America Industry Date

United States 17 May 2026

DeBLASEing the

Industrials Industry Update

Multi - Industry & Electrical Trail

Equipment

Head in the Cloud: An Update on the

Data Center Capex Outlook

Nicole DeBlase

Weekly #301: Pulse check on data center capex Research Analyst

This week, we dig into the data center market, summarizing recent management +1-212-250-5916

commentary from key hyperscalers, neocloud providers, data center REITs, and

Andrew Krill, CFA

select equipment manufacturers (such as Eaton, nVent, and Vertiv). Since our last Research Analyst

update, investor interest in the space has remained high and most companies +1-212-250-2997

continued to deliver stronger-than-expected orders (against a high bar of

Naim Kaplan

expectations) during 1Q26, fueling a sustained bullish multi-year narrative.

Research Associate

+1-212-250-5332

Hyperscaler capex forecasts continue to move higher, +69% Y/Y for 2026 vs.

+60% consensus post-4Q25 earnings season Jackson Glenn

In this report, we discuss the latest in terms of historical and projected hyperscaler Research Associate

+1-212-250-2500

capex for 2026-27 following 1Q26 earnings season (see Figures 1 and 2). Earnings

releases from hyperscalers once again drove material positive revisions to full-year

capex forecasts; consensus now embeds 69% Y/Y growth in 2026 vs. +60% post-

4Q25 earnings. On an absolute basis, 2026 hyperscaler capex is now expected to

be ~$42bn (6ppts) higher than in last quarter's edition of this analysis, with

companies continuing to prioritize data center investment and the AI infrastructure

build-out. Looking out to 2027, we saw a sizeable positive revision in consensus Y/Y