Post Q1 Thoughts: We Continue To Like Nuclear Upside; H2/26 Re-rating Catalyst

Research evidence excerpt

Post Q1 Thoughts: We Continue To Like Nuclear Upside; H2/26 Re-rating Catalyst

Industrial Products

AtkinsRéalis Group

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA EARNINGS UPDATE

May 15, 2026

Price: C$85.48 (05/14/2026) Post Q1 Thoughts: We Continue To Like

Price Target: C$117.00 (Prior C$127.00) Nuclear Upside; H2/26 Re-rating Catalyst

BUY (1)

ESG SCORE: 65/100

Michael Tupholme, CFA^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

416 307 9389

ATRL remains our top pick. We like its nuclear exposure and view MONARK as well positioned

michael.tupholme@tdsecurities.com

for Ontario new builds. We see an H2/26 nuclear tech. decision in Ontario as a re-rating

Atharva Zaveri^ catalyst. Also, we believe the 2026 Nuclear revenue guide could be conservative, given Q1/26

416 983 9717 growth of +37% y/y vs. vs. FY2026 guide of +9% y/y. ESR org. growth is strong and FY2026 ESR

atharva.zaveri@tdsecurities.com

margin expansion remains intact.

Key Data

Symbol TSX: ATRL-T Event:

12-Month Div (Est.): C$0.08

ATRL reported Q1/26 adj. EBITDA ahead of expectations. See HERE.

12-Month Total

37.0%

Return:

Impact: NEUTRAL

52-Week Range: C$105.98-C$83.66

Market Cap: C$14.0B ESR organic growth off to strong start; FY2026 ESR margin expansion intact. Engineering

Net Debt (MM): C$442.8 Services Regions (ESR) revenue grew +12.0% y/y (+5.0% organically), with AMEA the only

Dil. Shares Out (MM): 164.3 region declining y/y (-7.7%) on mix and Middle East impacts. We expect ESR organic growth

Float Shares (mm): 163.0 momentum to persist, with our full-year org. growth forecast at +5.4%, supported by a healthy

Float Cap ($mm): C$13,931 backlog (+3.4% y/y) and strong activity in key geographies, including Canada and the U.K.

Net Debt/Total Cap: 8 % While Q1/26 ESR margins (typically the lowest margin quarter) were softer (EBIT margin -50bps