UCB (+) : Rx tracker; Bimzelx strong, NRx pick up impressive

Research evidence excerpt

UCB (+) : Rx tracker; Bimzelx strong, NRx pick up impressive

EQUITIES

PHARMACEUTICALS

UCB OUTPERFORMPRICE* EUR240.3  TARGET PRICE EUR300 (UPSIDE 25%)

FLASH NOTE

Rx tracker; Bimzelxstrong, NRx pick up impressive

15 MAY 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 12:29* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Peter Verdult, CFA BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8683 peter.verdult@uk.bnpparibas.com

What happened?

Bimzelx continues to trend solidly in the US with risks to H1 consensus lying to the upside our view. With patient access

improving by 25% in 2026 volume growth will continue to be robust though we anticipate a near 10% pricing headwind,

reflecting channel mix dynamics and less uncontracted sales. These assumptions, which have been discussed with the

CFO point to risks around 2026e BNPP/consensus expectations of €3.2 lying to the upside. Furthermore, with label

expansion efforts ongoing in three additional indications, we remain comfortable with Bimzelx peak sales

expectations >€7bn. We like the Neurona cell therapy epilepsy deal, and recent acquisition of Candid for bispceifics.

Thoughts on Evenity trends (30% of group profits) and the “threat” from Oruka can be found here.

BNPP View:

Bimzelx’s weekly TRx ~8.7k and TRx/NRx growth of 89/78% respectively. Bimzelx holds an 11% TRx/NRx market

share. We forecast Bimzelx sales rising from €3.2bn in 2026 to a peak of €7.6bn in 2031e, taking into account

accelerating pricing pressure from 2029, when Cosentyx faces biosimilars, as well as the opportunity from further label

expansion (e.g. paediatric indications and palmoplantar pustulosis, addressable population >500k).

Significant access improvements are expected in 2026 which we anticipate fuelling continued volume growth in the US.